Documentation

Methodology · citations · data sources · USGS OFR references

Phase I

ATHENA is funded under DOE Genesis Mission DE-FOA-0003612. Full technical documentation and methodology notes are available in the proposal repository.

Methodology

Supply Risk Score (SR)SR = ∛(Depletion Potential × Trade Exposure × Environmental Vulnerability) · Nassar & Fortier 2021 · USGS OFR 2021-1038

Export Restriction ProbabilityML ensemble (gradient boosting + logistic) trained on UNCTAD restriction history 2000–2024 · P(restriction, 12m horizon)

Shock Propagation ModelParametric demand model · H/C/L supply envelopes · segment-level elasticities from Hao et al. 2024 NdFeB playbook (TRL-4)

Trade Anomaly DetectionBilateral flow deviation model · ±2σ from 36-month rolling baseline · UN Comtrade 6-digit HS basis

Data Sources

USGS Mineral Commodity SummariesPrimary SR baseline · annual · OSTI hosted

UN ComtradeTrade flows · HS 2846.xx REE; 2836.40 cobalt; 2504.10 graphite · monthly lag

MOFCOM / NDRC / MIINLP-parsed Chinese policy announcements · daily monitor

SMM (Shanghai Metals Market)Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb, Ce oxide prices · daily indicative

GLEIF LEI RegistryFacility ownership chain resolution · Ultimate Accounting Consolidation Parent

Key References

Nassar & Fortier 2021Methodology for Calculating Critical Mineral Supply Risk Scores · USGS OFR 2021-1038

Hao et al. 2024NdFeB shock playbook — parametric demand elasticities by end-use segment · TRL-4 calibration

DOE Genesis MissionDE-FOA-0003612 · AI-Toolkit for Holistic Economic Network Analysis