Observatory

Supply risk state · 31 critical minerals with NIR ≥ 50%

Pipeline healthy

Highest NIR · Critical Mineral>75Aluminum (bauxite) · leading: Guinea

Reference Records Ingested11,270USGS · MCS 2026 · MIS Q1–Q3 2025

Pipeline Activities55 complete · 0 stalled

Net Import Reliance · Critical Minerals ≥ 50%USGS MCS 2026 T7 · 2025

REE / NdFeB · Mine → Motor

critical

high

elevated

moderate

· SR score

critical ≥90%

high ≥70%

elevated ≥40%

moderate <40%

Aluminum (bauxite)

Guinea 34%

>75

Antimony

China 36%

91%

Arsenic

Peru 49%

100%

Barite

India 34%

>75

Bismuth

China 88%

92%

Chromium

South Africa 45%

79%

Cobalt

Congo (Kinshasa) 74%

79%

Copper

Chile 23%

57%

Fluorspar

China 60%

100%

Gallium

China 100%

100%

Germanium

China

>50

Graphite (natural)

China 78%

100%

Indium

China 69%

100%

Lithium

Australia 32%

>50

NIR% as supply risk proxy. SR = ∛(DP × TE × EV) activates once score engine is live.

Data Coverage

EPA_FRS5,393,235

EPA Facility Registry System

USGS8,866

US Geological Survey

USGS_MIS960

USGS Mineral Industry Surveys (Quarterly)

USGS_NARRATIVE764

USGS MCS Narrative Text (per-commodity sections)

USGS_SALIENT680

USGS MCS Salient Statistics Bundle

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New Scenario

Market Pulse · 1-Year Price ChangeUSGS MCS 2026 Fig10 · 2024→2025

Bismuth+270%

5yr +52%

Antimony+144%

5yr +47%

Germanium+106%

5yr +36%

Rhenium+91%

5yr +28%

Tellurium (U.S.)+60%

5yr +15%

Ruthenium+53%

5yr +5%

Demand Trajectory · Critical MineralsUSGS MCS 2026 Fig11/12

1yr (2024→25)

5yr (2021→25)

decline

Rare earths

+200%+242%

Antimony

+57%+62%

Tantalum

+57%+34%

Palladium

+56%+60%

Silver

+49%+18%

Yttrium

-40%-57%

Arsenic

-34%+13%

Platinum

+34%+80%

Rhenium

+32%+22%

Tin

+24%-10%

Apparent consumption % change. Dark bar = 1yr, light = 5yr. Amber = contraction.

Domestic Production · Top StatesUSGS MCS 2026 T3 · 2025 prelim

1Nevada

11.3% · $12.6B

2Arizona

9.3% · $10.4B

3Texas

9.1% · $10.2B

Alaska

5.7% · $6.4B

California

5.2% · $5.9B

Florida

2.7% · $3.0B

Utah

3.5% · $3.9B

Missouri

3.1% · $3.4B

Minnesota

2.8% · $3.2B

Michigan

2.6% · $2.9B

Share of total U.S. nonfuel mineral production value. Top 3 in amber.

Reference Data Sourcesprov_raw_payloads

USGSUS Geological Survey

8,866 records3/28/2026

USGS_MISUSGS Mineral Industry Surveys (Quarterly)

960 records3/28/2026

USGS_NARRATIVEUSGS MCS Narrative Text (per-commodity sections)

764 records3/28/2026

USGS_SALIENTUSGS MCS Salient Statistics Bundle

680 records3/28/2026